U.S. stock futures opened modestly higher Tuesday, bolstered by rising bets on a September Federal Reserve interest rate cut and strong corporate earnings.
Futures Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures climbed about +0.26% early morning, with the Nasdaq‑100 futures up around +0.39%. Dow futures held near flat.
- The move builds on Monday’s rebound: the Dow rose 1.3%, the S&P 500 gained 1.5% in its largest advance since late May.
Fed Rate‑Cut Odds Climb
Weaker-than-expected July jobs data—with only ~73,000 new jobs added, downward revisions to May/June, and unemployment near ~4.2%—have pushed CME FedWatch implied probability of a September rate cut to around 88% (up sharply from ~63% one week ago).
Still, major banks like Morgan Stanley and Bank of America caution the labor market remains resilient and inflation sticky, arguing the Fed may hold off until 2026 despite market pricing.
Earnings Spotlight
- Palantir Technologies surged over 5% pre‑market after raising its full‑year revenue forecast on strong AI and defense demand.
- Hims & Hers Health fell ~12%, while Inspire Medical Systems dropped ~25% after weak results.
- Later today, investors will digest earnings from AMD, Pfizer, Snap, Rivian and Yum Brands.
Macro & Political Backdrop
Leadership shifts have rattled confidence: President Trump’s dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics head and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s resignation raise concerns over data integrity and central bank independence.
Tariff tensions remain elevated. The U.S. is threatening higher duties on imports from India over Russian oil ties, while trade talks with China and Switzerland are still unresolved.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has weakened, sliding as rate‑cut expectations rise—Goldman Sachs predicts three consecutive 25‑basis‑point cuts starting possibly larger if labor data worsens. The Dollar Index stands around ~98.7.
